Understanding the Semiconductor Industry
A from-first-principles map of the chip value chain and its chokepoints — TSMC, HBM, advanced packaging, China's real ceiling, and the AI-driven power wall.
The semiconductor stack starts as many downstream products and narrows, upstream, into a handful of chokepoints that a few companies control. This report works through that chain from first principles: why TSMC is the company the world actually runs on, how the economics of consolidation concentrate power, and why advanced packaging and HBM memory — not logic alone — are now the hard limits on how much AI compute is usable.
It then turns to the geopolitics: China’s legacy strategy and its champions (Huawei 华为, SMIC 中芯国际, CXMT 长鑫存储), where the real ceiling sits (HBM, not logic), and how AI capex and the power wall reshape demand. It closes with a dated, falsifiable 2 / 5 / 10-year outlook.